TSAQA: Time Series Analysis Question And Answering Benchmark

Time series data are integral to critical applications across domains such as finance, healthcare, transportation, and environmental science. While recent work has begun to explore multi-task time series question answering (QA), current benchmarks remain limited to forecasting and anomaly detection tasks. We introduce TSAQA, a novel unified benchmark designed to broaden task coverage and evaluate diverse temporal analysis capabilities. TSAQA integrates six diverse tasks under a single framework ranging from conventional analysis, including anomaly detection and classification, to advanced analysis, such as characterization, comparison, data transformation, and temporal relationship analysis. Spanning 210k samples across 13 domains, the dataset employs diverse formats, including true-or-false (TF), multiple-choice (MC), and a novel puzzling (PZ), to comprehensively assess time series analysis. Zero-shot evaluation demonstrates that these tasks are challenging for current Large Language Models (LLMs): the best-performing commercial LLM, Gemini-2.5-Flash, achieves an average score of only 65.08. Although instruction tuning boosts open-source performance: the best-performing open-source model, LLaMA-3.1-8B, shows significant room for improvement, highlighting the complexity of temporal analysis for LLMs.

Changepoint Detection As Model Selection: A General Framework

This dissertation presents a general framework for changepoint detection based on L0 model selection. The core method, Iteratively Reweighted Fused Lasso (IRFL), improves upon the generalized lasso by adaptively reweighting penalties to enhance support recovery and minimize criteria such as the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The approach allows for flexible modeling of seasonal patterns, linear and quadratic trends, and autoregressive dependence in the presence of changepoints. Simulation studies demonstrate that IRFL achieves accurate changepoint detection across a wide range of challenging scenarios, including those involving nuisance factors such as trends, seasonal patterns, and serially correlated errors. The framework is further extended to image data, where it enables edge-preserving denoising and segmentation, with applications spanning medical imaging and high-throughput plant phenotyping. Applications to real-world data demonstrate IRFL's utility. In particular, analysis of the Mauna Loa CO2 time series reveals changepoints that align with volcanic eruptions and ENSO events, yielding a more accurate trend decomposition than ordinary least squares. Overall, IRFL provides a robust, extensible tool for detecting structural change in complex data.

Bonnet: Ultra-fast whole-body bone segmentation from CT scans

This work proposes Bonnet, an ultra-fast sparse-volume pipeline for whole-body bone segmentation from CT scans. Accurate bone segmentation is important for surgical planning and anatomical analysis, but existing 3D voxel-based models such as nnU-Net and STU-Net require heavy computation and often take several minutes per scan, which limits time-critical use. The proposed Bonnet addresses this by integrating a series of novel framework components including HU-based bone thresholding, patch-wise inference with a sparse spconv-based U-Net, and multi-window fusion into a full-volume prediction. Trained on TotalSegmentator and evaluated without additional tuning on RibSeg, CT-Pelvic1K, and CT-Spine1K, Bonnet achieves high Dice across ribs, pelvis, and spine while running in only 2.69 seconds per scan on an RTX A6000. Compared to strong voxel baselines, Bonnet attains a similar accuracy but reduces inference time by roughly 25x on the same hardware and tiling setup. The toolkit and pre-trained models will be released at https://github.com/HINTLab/Bonnet.

Tabular Foundation Models Can Do Survival Analysis

While tabular foundation models have achieved remarkable success in classification and regression, adapting them to model time-to-event outcomes for survival analysis is non-trivial due to right-censoring, where data observations may end before the event occurs. We develop a classification-based framework that reformulates both static and dynamic survival analysis as a series of binary classification problems by discretizing event times. Censored observations are naturally handled as examples with missing labels at certain time points. This classification formulation enables existing tabular foundation models to perform survival analysis through in-context learning without explicit training. We prove that under standard censoring assumptions, minimizing our binary classification loss recovers the true survival probabilities as the training set size increases. We demonstrate through evaluation across $53$ real-world datasets that off-the-shelf tabular foundation models with this classification formulation outperform classical and deep learning baselines on average over multiple survival metrics.

DA-SPS: A Dual-stage Network based on Singular Spectrum Analysis, Patching-strategy and Spearman-correlation for Multivariate Time-series Prediction

Multivariate time-series forecasting, as a typical problem in the field of time series prediction, has a wide range of applications in weather forecasting, traffic flow prediction, and other scenarios. However, existing works do not effectively consider the impact of extraneous variables on the prediction of the target variable. On the other hand, they fail to fully extract complex sequence information based on various time patterns of the sequences. To address these drawbacks, we propose a DA-SPS model, which adopts different modules for feature extraction based on the information characteristics of different variables. DA-SPS mainly consists of two stages: the target variable processing stage (TVPS) and the extraneous variables processing stage (EVPS). In TVPS, the model first uses Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) to process the target variable sequence and then uses Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and P-Conv-LSTM which deploys a patching strategy to extract features from trend and seasonality components, respectively. In EVPS, the model filters extraneous variables that have a strong correlation with the target variate by using Spearman correlation analysis and further analyses them using the L-Attention module which consists of LSTM and attention mechanism. Finally, the results obtained by TVPS and EVPS are combined through weighted summation and linear mapping to produce the final prediction. The results on four public datasets demonstrate that the DA-SPS model outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, its performance in real-world scenarios is further validated using a private dataset collected by ourselves, which contains the test items' information on laptop motherboards.

Multi-Modal Time Series Prediction via Mixture of Modulated Experts

Real-world time series exhibit complex and evolving dynamics, making accurate forecasting extremely challenging. Recent multi-modal forecasting methods leverage textual information such as news reports to improve prediction, but most rely on token-level fusion that mixes temporal patches with language tokens in a shared embedding space. However, such fusion can be ill-suited when high-quality time-text pairs are scarce and when time series exhibit substantial variation in scale and characteristics, thus complicating cross-modal alignment. In parallel, Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures have proven effective for both time series modeling and multi-modal learning, yet many existing MoE-based modality integration methods still depend on token-level fusion. To address this, we propose Expert Modulation, a new paradigm for multi-modal time series prediction that conditions both routing and expert computation on textual signals, enabling direct and efficient cross-modal control over expert behavior. Through comprehensive theoretical analysis and experiments, our proposed method demonstrates substantial improvements in multi-modal time series prediction. The current code is available at https://github.com/BruceZhangReve/MoME

MuRAL-CPD: Active Learning for Multiresolution Change Point Detection

Change Point Detection (CPD) is a critical task in time series analysis, aiming to identify moments when the underlying data-generating process shifts. Traditional CPD methods often rely on unsupervised techniques, which lack adaptability to task-specific definitions of change and cannot benefit from user knowledge. To address these limitations, we propose MuRAL-CPD, a novel semi-supervised method that integrates active learning into a multiresolution CPD algorithm. MuRAL-CPD leverages a wavelet-based multiresolution decomposition to detect changes across multiple temporal scales and incorporates user feedback to iteratively optimize key hyperparameters. This interaction enables the model to align its notion of change with that of the user, improving both accuracy and interpretability. Our experimental results on several real-world datasets show the effectiveness of MuRAL-CPD against state-of-the-art methods, particularly in scenarios where minimal supervision is available.

AWGformer: Adaptive Wavelet-Guided Transformer for Multi-Resolution Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting requires capturing patterns across multiple temporal scales while maintaining computational efficiency. This paper introduces AWGformer, a novel architecture that integrates adaptive wavelet decomposition with cross-scale attention mechanisms for enhanced multi-variate time series prediction. Our approach comprises: (1) an Adaptive Wavelet Decomposition Module (AWDM) that dynamically selects optimal wavelet bases and decomposition levels based on signal characteristics; (2) a Cross-Scale Feature Fusion (CSFF) mechanism that captures interactions between different frequency bands through learnable coupling matrices; (3) a Frequency-Aware Multi-Head Attention (FAMA) module that weights attention heads according to their frequency selectivity; (4) a Hierarchical Prediction Network (HPN) that generates forecasts at multiple resolutions before reconstruction. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that AWGformer achieves significant average improvements over state-of-the-art methods, with particular effectiveness on multi-scale and non-stationary time series. Theoretical analysis provides convergence guarantees and establishes the connection between our wavelet-guided attention and classical signal processing principles.

ParalESN: Enabling parallel information processing in Reservoir Computing

Reservoir Computing (RC) has established itself as an efficient paradigm for temporal processing. However, its scalability remains severely constrained by (i) the necessity of processing temporal data sequentially and (ii) the prohibitive memory footprint of high-dimensional reservoirs. In this work, we revisit RC through the lens of structured operators and state space modeling to address these limitations, introducing Parallel Echo State Network (ParalESN). ParalESN enables the construction of high-dimensional and efficient reservoirs based on diagonal linear recurrence in the complex space, enabling parallel processing of temporal data. We provide a theoretical analysis demonstrating that ParalESN preserves the Echo State Property and the universality guarantees of traditional Echo State Networks while admitting an equivalent representation of arbitrary linear reservoirs in the complex diagonal form. Empirically, ParalESN matches the predictive accuracy of traditional RC on time series benchmarks, while delivering substantial computational savings. On 1-D pixel-level classification tasks, ParalESN achieves competitive accuracy with fully trainable neural networks while reducing computational costs and energy consumption by orders of magnitude. Overall, ParalESN offers a promising, scalable, and principled pathway for integrating RC within the deep learning landscape.

Do Not Waste Your Rollouts: Recycling Search Experience for Efficient Test-Time Scaling

Test-Time Scaling enhances the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models by allocating additional inference compute to broaden the exploration of the solution space. However, existing search strategies typically treat rollouts as disposable samples, where valuable intermediate insights are effectively discarded after each trial. This systemic memorylessness leads to massive computational redundancy, as models repeatedly re-derive discovered conclusions and revisit known dead ends across extensive attempts. To bridge this gap, we propose \textbf{Recycling Search Experience (RSE)}, a self-guided, training-free strategy that turns test-time search from a series of isolated trials into a cumulative process. By actively distilling raw trajectories into a shared experience bank, RSE enables positive recycling of intermediate conclusions to shortcut redundant derivations and negative recycling of failure patterns to prune encountered dead ends. Theoretically, we provide an analysis that formalizes the efficiency gains of RSE, validating its advantage over independent sampling in solving complex reasoning tasks. Empirically, extensive experiments on HMMT24, HMMT25, IMO-Bench, and HLE show that RSE consistently outperforms strong baselines with comparable computational cost, achieving state-of-the-art scaling efficiency.